Dundelavs
Moyola Park
COMPLETEDNorthern-Ireland · League Cup · 10/20/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Dundela · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Dundela 1-4 Moyola Park
Original prediction
Dundela
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 09:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.12 | 42.6% | 40.3% | -2.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.60 | 25.1% | 26.3% | 1.2 pts |
| Away | 2.79 | 32.3% | 33.4% | 1.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Dundela
Probability
40.3%
Model confidence
40.3%
Dundela has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40