Premier DivisionPremier Division
Friday, 26 June 2026Last updated 12:36
Dundalk

Dundalk

Home
W
23
Full time
Waterford

Waterford

Away
W
Oriel Park
GoalVio prediction
43% confidence
Dundalk(43%)
Most likely exact score2-1
Prediction missed— Result: Waterford
Win probability
Dundalk
43%
Draw
27%
Waterford
30%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Dundalk
94
Waterford
73
Defence
Dundalk
66
Waterford
66
Momentum
Dundalk
100
Waterford
100
Danger (xG)
Dundalk
2.70
Waterford
1.80
Both teams to score
Yes
Over 2.5 goals
Yes
xG for (Dundalk)
2.70
avg per match
xG for (Waterford)
1.80
avg per match
xG against (Dundalk)
0.90
avg per match
xG against (Waterford)
0.90
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
DundalkDundalk
WLLLW
WaterfordWaterford
WDWWD

Probability breakdown

43% confidence
Dundalk43%
Draw27%
Waterford30%

Dundalk leads with 43% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

Share this

Analysis

Match insights

Dundalk head into this in Premier Division fixture at Oriel Park in mixed form (W), while Waterford arrive in mixed form (W). Dundalk have a 100% win rate across their last 1 matches, compared to 100% for Waterford over 1 games.

Both sides are defensively strong — Dundalk (66/100) and Waterford (66/100) are both rated highly at the back. The model expects a tight, low-scoring affair with defences on top.

Dundalk have won 1 of their last 3 home fixtures, averaging 1.3 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per game at home. Waterford have been excellent on the road, winning all 2 of their recent away fixtures and averaging 3.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per away game.

Waterford have dominated recent head-to-head meetings, winning 1 of the last 1 encounters, averaging 5.0 goals per game, both teams scored in 1 of those fixtures.

The GoalVio engine projects Dundalk to win with 43% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 2-1. Win probabilities: Dundalk 4294%, Draw 2670%, Waterford 3036%. BTTS: Yes, Over 2.5: Yes.

Head to head

Dundalk 0Draws 01 Waterford
Avg goals: 5.0BTTS in 1/1
26 Jun 2026
Dundalk
L23
Waterford

Recent form

Dundalk

Dundalk

W
@ St Mochta's
17 Jul 2026
31
L
vs Drogheda United
10 Jul 2026
12
L
@ Shelbourne
3 Jul 2026
12
L
vs Waterford
26 Jun 2026
23
W
vs Shamrock Rovers
15 May 2026
10
Waterford

Waterford

W
vs Cobh Ramblers
17 Jul 2026
21
D
vs St Patrick's Athl.
10 Jul 2026
11
W
@ Derry City
3 Jul 2026
42
W
@ Dundalk
26 Jun 2026
32
D
vs Derry City
15 May 2026
22

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Dundalk vs Waterford?

GoalVio's model predicts Dundalk to win with 43% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Dundalk vs Waterford?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 2-1.

Will both teams score in Dundalk vs Waterford?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: Yes — both teams are expected to score.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Dundalk vs Waterford?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: Yes.

Explore more predictions

About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
View full accuracy stats →
Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more