Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bohemians · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Dundalk 1-2 Bohemians
Original prediction
Bohemians
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.90 | 23.8% | 27.1% | 3.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.93 | 23.6% | 24.7% | 1.1 pts |
| Away | 1.76 | 52.6% | 48.2% | -4.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.76 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–28%
Predicted outcome
Bohemians
Probability
48.2%
Model confidence
48.2%
Bohemians has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
DundalkLLDLW
GF 8 · GA 14 · avg 1.60/2.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
BohemiansDWWDW
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
DundalkBohemians
51.0Attack59.1
44.8Defence60.2
42.7Form60.2
47.8Power60.8
1.25xG1.86