Dunav Rusevs
Spartak Varna
COMPLETEDBulgaria · First League · 10/24/2026, 11:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Dunav Ruse · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (11%), 0-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Dunav Ruse 2-0 Spartak Varna
Original prediction
Dunav Ruse
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 06:29 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.36 | 39.0% | 35.5% | -3.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.12 | 29.4% | 29.1% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 2.91 | 31.6% | 35.3% | 3.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.36 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.0–111%
Predicted outcome
Dunav Ruse
Probability
35.5%
Model confidence
35.5%
Dunav Ruse has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80