Dunav Rusevs
Lokomotiv Sofia
COMPLETEDBulgaria · First League · 8/31/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lokomotiv Sofia · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (10%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Dunav Ruse 2-2 Lokomotiv Sofia
Original prediction
Lokomotiv Sofia
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.38 | 27.3% | 34.2% | 6.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.28 | 28.2% | 27.4% | -0.8 pts |
| Away | 2.08 | 44.5% | 38.4% | -6.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.28 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–010%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Lokomotiv Sofia
Probability
38.4%
Model confidence
38.4%
Lokomotiv Sofia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 0.80/2.00
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00