Dumbartonvs
Stirling Albion
COMPLETEDScotland · League Two · 10/17/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Dumbarton · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Dumbarton 1-1 Stirling Albion
Original prediction
Dumbarton
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 17:18 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.32 | 39.3% | 47.6% | 8.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.59 | 25.4% | 22.3% | -3.1 pts |
| Away | 2.59 | 35.3% | 30.1% | -5.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.59 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–07%
Predicted outcome
Dumbarton
Probability
47.6%
Model confidence
47.6%
Dumbarton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 11 · avg 1.80/2.20
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60