Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Spartans · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (9%), 1-3 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Dumbarton 3-0 Spartans
Original prediction
Spartans
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.93 | 23.2% | 18.5% | -4.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.87 | 23.6% | 19.7% | -3.9 pts |
| Away | 1.71 | 53.2% | 61.8% | 8.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–210%
- 2.0–29%
- 3.1–38%
Predicted outcome
Spartans
Probability
61.8%
Model confidence
61.8%
Spartans has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
DumbartonLLWLD
GF 6 · GA 14 · avg 1.20/2.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
SpartansWLWDW
GF 15 · GA 8 · avg 3.00/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
DumbartonSpartans
23.8Attack90.5
33.3Defence42.9
28.6Form57.1
32.7Power63.0
1.10xG2.63