Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Spartans · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Dumbarton are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DLDWL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Spartans are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (DLLWL), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Spartans hold a 20.2-point power-rating edge (47.8 v 68.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 35.3% in the League Two, while Spartans holds the strongest overall chance at 35% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 59% BTTS chance and 54% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Spartans
Probability
35.3%
Model confidence
35.3%
Spartans has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80