Dumbartonvs
Forfar Athletic
COMPLETEDScotland · League Two · 10/3/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Dumbarton · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (11%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Dumbarton 2-1 Forfar Athletic
Original prediction
Dumbarton
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:59 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.00 | 45.7% | 38.2% | -7.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.59 | 25.5% | 29.2% | 3.7 pts |
| Away | 3.19 | 28.7% | 32.6% | 3.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Dumbarton
Probability
38.2%
Model confidence
38.2%
Dumbarton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 13 · avg 2.20/2.60
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60