Dumbartonvs
Elgin City
COMPLETEDScotland · League Two · 9/5/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Elgin City · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 1-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Dumbarton 2-1 Elgin City
Original prediction
Elgin City
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:18 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.66 | 25.0% | 24.9% | -0.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.64 | 25.1% | 26.4% | 1.2 pts |
| Away | 1.83 | 49.9% | 48.8% | -1.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–211%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.1–19%
Predicted outcome
Elgin City
Probability
48.8%
Model confidence
48.8%
Elgin City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 13 · avg 0.80/2.60
GF 14 · GA 6 · avg 2.80/1.20