Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Dukagjini · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Dukagjini 1-0 Vushtrria, with an exact score probability of 20%.
Prediction record
Final result
Dukagjini 1-0 Vushtrria
Original prediction
Dukagjini
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 September 2026 at 09:22 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.13 | 79.0% | 65.3% | -13.6 pts |
| Draw | 5.83 | 15.3% | 21.8% | 6.5 pts |
| Away | 15.66 | 5.7% | 12.9% | 7.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.13 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.7 pts
Projected Score
Dukagjini 1–0 Vushtrria
Exact score probability: 20%
Predicted outcome
Dukagjini
Probability
65.3%
Model confidence
65.3%
Dukagjini has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
DukagjiniDLDWW
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
VushtrriaWLLLL
GF 2 · GA 11 · avg 0.40/2.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
DukagjiniVushtrria
33.3Attack16.7
79.2Defence16.7
54.2Form12.5
58.1Power19.7
1.75xG0.41