Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Dugo Selo · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Dugo Selo 3-1 Bjelovar
Original prediction
Dugo Selo
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 17:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.13 | 42.4% | 38.8% | -3.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.43 | 26.3% | 28.5% | 2.1 pts |
| Away | 2.90 | 31.2% | 32.8% | 1.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.13 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Dugo Selo
Probability
38.8%
Model confidence
38.8%
Dugo Selo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Dugo SeloWWWLL
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 4/5
BjelovarDDWLW
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Dugo SeloBjelovar
50.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power50.0
1.60xG1.36