FAI CupFAI Cup
Friday, 17 July 2026Last updated 14:59
Drogheda United

Drogheda United

Home
W
40
Full time
Lucan United

Lucan United

Away
L
GoalVio prediction
Too close to call
No clear favourite

The model sees this as an open match — all three outcomes are within a tight range.

Drogheda United35%
Draw35%
Lucan United30%
Most likely exact score1-0
Prediction correct— Result: Drogheda United
Win probability
Drogheda United
35%
Draw
35%
Lucan United
30%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Drogheda United
99
Lucan United
9
Defence
Drogheda United
91
Lucan United
1
Momentum
Drogheda United
100
Lucan United
0
Danger (xG)
Drogheda United
3.60
Lucan United
0.00
Both teams to score
No
Over 2.5 goals
No
xG for (Drogheda United)
3.60
avg per match
xG for (Lucan United)
0.00
avg per match
xG against (Drogheda United)
0.00
avg per match
xG against (Lucan United)
3.60
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
Drogheda UnitedDrogheda United
WWLLD
Lucan UnitedLucan United
L

Probability breakdown

39% confidence
Drogheda United35%
Draw35%
Lucan United30%

Drogheda United leads with 35% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

Drogheda United head into this in FAI Cup fixture in mixed form (W), while Lucan United arrive in mixed form (L). Drogheda United have a 100% win rate across their last 1 matches, compared to 0% for Lucan United over 1 games.

Tactically, this looks like a one-sided contest. Drogheda United's elite attack (99/100) faces a vulnerable Lucan United defence (1/100), while Lucan United's attack is up against a watertight Drogheda United backline. The model sees a clear mismatch in Drogheda United's favour.

Drogheda United have won 1 of their last 3 home fixtures, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game at home. Lucan United have found it tough away from home, failing to win any of their last 1 away matches. They average 0.0 goals scored and 4.0 conceded per away game.

Drogheda United have the upper hand in recent meetings, winning 1 of the last 1 encounters, averaging 4.0 goals per game.

The GoalVio engine projects Drogheda United to win with 39% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 1-0. Win probabilities: Drogheda United 3518%, Draw 3500%, Lucan United 2982%. BTTS: No, Over 2.5: No.

Head to head

Drogheda United 1Draws 00 Lucan United
Avg goals: 4.0
17 Jul 2026
Drogheda United
W40
Lucan United

Recent form

Drogheda United

Drogheda United

W
vs Lucan United
17 Jul 2026
40
W
@ Dundalk
10 Jul 2026
21
L
vs Bohemians
3 Jul 2026
02
L
@ Derry City
26 Jun 2026
02
D
vs Shelbourne
19 Jun 2026
22
Lucan United

Lucan United

L
@ Drogheda United
17 Jul 2026
04

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Drogheda United vs Lucan United?

GoalVio's model predicts Drogheda United to win with 39% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Drogheda United vs Lucan United?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-0.

Will both teams score in Drogheda United vs Lucan United?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Drogheda United vs Lucan United?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more