Drogheda Unitedvs
Dundalk
COMPLETEDIreland · Premier Division · 8/28/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Dundalk · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Drogheda United 2-3 Dundalk
Original prediction
Dundalk
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:52 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.13 | 29.6% | 29.8% | 0.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.37 | 27.5% | 24.5% | -3.0 pts |
| Away | 2.16 | 42.9% | 45.7% | 2.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.16 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Dundalk
Probability
45.7%
Model confidence
45.7%
Dundalk has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
GF 13 · GA 7 · avg 2.60/1.40