Drogheda Unitedvs
Derry City
COMPLETEDIreland · Premier Division · 10/16/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Derry City · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (10%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Drogheda United 2-0 Derry City
Original prediction
Derry City
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 2 October 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.09 | 29.9% | 29.5% | -0.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.26 | 28.3% | 26.3% | -2.0 pts |
| Away | 2.20 | 41.9% | 44.2% | 2.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Derry City
Probability
44.2%
Model confidence
44.2%
Derry City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80