Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Triglav · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (12%), 0-3 (10%), 1-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Dravinja 1-4 Triglav
Original prediction
Triglav
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:58 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.75 | 18.9% | 19.9% | 1.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.75 | 24.0% | 23.3% | -0.7 pts |
| Away | 1.57 | 57.1% | 56.8% | -0.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.57 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–212%
- 2.0–310%
- 3.1–210%
Predicted outcome
Triglav
Probability
56.8%
Model confidence
56.8%
Triglav has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
DravinjaLLLWW
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
TriglavLWLDD
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
DravinjaTriglav
0.0Attack80.0
33.3Defence68.9
0.0Form71.1
15.3Power70.6
0.81xG2.58