Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Jesenice · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (10%), 0-3 (10%), 1-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Dravinja 2-1 Jesenice
Original prediction
Jesenice
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 00:26 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.90 | 30.8% | 23.6% | -7.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.44 | 26.0% | 24.0% | -2.0 pts |
| Away | 2.07 | 43.2% | 52.4% | 9.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–210%
- 2.0–310%
- 3.1–29%
Predicted outcome
Jesenice
Probability
52.4%
Model confidence
52.4%
Jesenice has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
DravinjaDLLWL
GF 7 · GA 14 · avg 1.40/2.80
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
JeseniceDLWWW
GF 12 · GA 7 · avg 2.40/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
DravinjaJesenice
33.3Attack60.0
16.7Defence53.3
16.7Form56.7
25.8Power55.8
0.92xG2.91