Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bistrica · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Dravinja 3-1 Bistrica
Original prediction
Bistrica
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.16 | 28.1% | 29.8% | 1.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.44 | 25.9% | 26.8% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 1.94 | 46.0% | 43.4% | -2.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–18%
Predicted outcome
Bistrica
Probability
43.4%
Model confidence
43.4%
Bistrica has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
DravinjaLDLLL
GF 4 · GA 15 · avg 0.80/3.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
BistricaWLWWL
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
DravinjaBistrica
0.0Attack100.0
33.3Defence66.7
0.0Form100.0
15.3Power88.7
1.24xG1.74