Dragones de Oaxacavs
Real Refineros
COMPLETEDMexico · Liga Premier Serie A · 10/4/2026, 12:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Dragones de Oaxaca · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Dragones de Oaxaca 3-2 Real Refineros
Original prediction
Dragones de Oaxaca
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 8 September 2026 at 10:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.44 | 63.0% | 53.1% | -9.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.43 | 20.5% | 24.3% | 3.8 pts |
| Away | 5.51 | 16.5% | 22.6% | 6.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.44 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Dragones de Oaxaca
Probability
53.1%
Model confidence
53.1%
Dragones de Oaxaca has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40