Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Doxa · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Doxa 3-0 Ayia Napa
Original prediction
Doxa
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 19:58 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.35 | 68.0% | 55.6% | -12.4 pts |
| Draw | 4.40 | 20.8% | 23.1% | 2.2 pts |
| Away | 8.21 | 11.2% | 21.3% | 10.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.35 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.1–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Doxa
Probability
55.6%
Model confidence
55.6%
Doxa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
DoxaWWDLL
GF 10 · GA 15 · avg 2.00/3.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
Ayia NapaLDLWW
GF 12 · GA 9 · avg 2.40/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
DoxaAyia Napa
100.0Attack33.3
22.2Defence33.3
77.8Form11.1
70.7Power29.5
2.22xG1.20