Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Dover · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Dover 3-3 Braintree
Original prediction
Dover
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:57 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.13 | 42.7% | 47.0% | 4.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.44 | 26.4% | 24.7% | -1.7 pts |
| Away | 2.93 | 30.9% | 28.3% | -2.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.44 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–07%
Predicted outcome
Dover
Probability
47.0%
Model confidence
47.0%
Dover has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
DoverWLWLD
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
BraintreeLWLLL
GF 6 · GA 12 · avg 1.20/2.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
DoverBraintree
66.7Attack44.4
33.3Defence11.1
50.0Form33.3
51.8Power33.1
2.18xG1.37