Dorking Wanderersvs
Chatham Town
COMPLETEDEngland · FA Cup · 10/3/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Dorking Wanderers · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 1-2 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Dorking Wanderers 1-0 Chatham Town
Original prediction
Dorking Wanderers
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:42 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.29 | 70.0% | 42.0% | -27.9 pts |
| Draw | 5.24 | 17.3% | 25.2% | 7.9 pts |
| Away | 7.07 | 12.8% | 32.8% | 20.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.29 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-27.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Dorking Wanderers
Probability
42.0%
Model confidence
42.0%
Dorking Wanderers has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 16 · GA 14 · avg 3.20/2.80
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40