Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
VVV Venlo · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-4 (9%), 1-3 (9%), 1-5 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Dordrecht 2-4 VVV Venlo
Original prediction
VVV Venlo
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:38 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.62 | 35.4% | 22.8% | -12.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.70 | 25.1% | 20.8% | -4.2 pts |
| Away | 2.34 | 39.6% | 56.4% | 16.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.34 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
16.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–49%
- 2.1–39%
- 3.1–58%
Predicted outcome
VVV Venlo
Probability
56.4%
Model confidence
56.4%
VVV Venlo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
DordrechtWLDWL
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
VVV VenloDWWLW
GF 14 · GA 8 · avg 2.80/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
DordrechtVVV Venlo
42.4Attack90.9
18.2Defence45.5
33.3Form66.7
34.6Power67.2
1.38xG4.23