Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Jong AZ · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 1-2 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Dordrecht 3-6 Jong AZ
Original prediction
Jong AZ
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:19 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.18 | 42.5% | 35.1% | -7.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.76 | 24.7% | 24.1% | -0.6 pts |
| Away | 2.82 | 32.9% | 40.7% | 7.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.82 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Jong AZ
Probability
40.7%
Model confidence
40.7%
Jong AZ has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
DordrechtLLDWL
GF 5 · GA 12 · avg 1.00/2.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Jong AZWLLWL
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
DordrechtJong AZ
41.7Attack60.0
16.7Defence40.0
33.3Form40.0
33.4Power47.4
1.69xG2.08