Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Emmen · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-3 (7%), 2-3 (7%), 1-2 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Dordrecht 0-3 Emmen
Original prediction
Emmen
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 00:18 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.84 | 32.7% | 26.2% | -6.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.79 | 24.5% | 20.4% | -4.1 pts |
| Away | 2.16 | 42.9% | 53.5% | 10.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.16 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–37%
- 2.2–37%
- 3.1–26%
Predicted outcome
Emmen
Probability
53.5%
Model confidence
53.5%
Emmen has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
DordrechtDWLLL
GF 8 · GA 14 · avg 1.60/2.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
EmmenDWLLW
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
DordrechtEmmen
48.1Attack70.4
11.1Defence33.3
29.6Form59.3
32.8Power55.7
1.93xG3.34