Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Dorados · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-0
Dorados are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (DLWDD), averaging 1.60 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Tlaxcala are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WLLWW), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Dorados hold a 49.7-point power-rating edge (68.0 v 18.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 63.2% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Dorados holds the strongest overall chance at 63% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 57% BTTS chance and 63% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Dorados
Probability
63.2%
Model confidence
63.2%
Dorados has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 10 · avg 1.60/2.00
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80