Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Dorados · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-0
Dorados are 0W-0D-5L in their last 5 (LLLLL), averaging 0.20 scored and 3.40 conceded, while Tlaxcala are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LLWWL), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 9 passed 2.5 goals, and Dorados hold a 49.7-point power-rating edge (68.0 v 18.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 63.2% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Dorados holds the strongest overall chance at 63% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 57% BTTS chance and 63% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Dorados
Probability
63.2%
Model confidence
63.2%
Dorados has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 1 · GA 17 · avg 0.20/3.40
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60