Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Dorados · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Dorados are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (LLLDD), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Tapatío are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWWDL), averaging 2.80 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Dorados hold a 9.2-point power-rating edge (68.0 v 58.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 43.1% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Dorados holds the strongest overall chance at 43% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 58% BTTS chance and 54% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Dorados
Probability
43.1%
Model confidence
43.1%
Dorados has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
GF 14 · GA 7 · avg 2.80/1.40