Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Dorados · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Dorados are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LLLLW), averaging 1.00 scored and 2.40 conceded, while Tapatío are 2W-3D-0L in their last 5 (DDWDW), averaging 2.00 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Dorados hold a 9.2-point power-rating edge (68.0 v 58.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 43.1% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Dorados holds the strongest overall chance at 43% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 58% BTTS chance and 54% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Dorados
Probability
43.1%
Model confidence
43.1%
Dorados has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 12 · avg 1.00/2.40
GF 10 · GA 3 · avg 2.00/0.60