Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Dorados · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Dorados are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LLWLL), averaging 0.40 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Irapuato are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DLWLW), averaging 2.00 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Dorados hold a 17.0-point power-rating edge (68.0 v 51.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 43.6% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Dorados holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 60% BTTS chance and 57% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Dorados
Probability
43.6%
Model confidence
43.6%
Dorados has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 10 · avg 0.40/2.00
GF 10 · GA 10 · avg 2.00/2.00