Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Dorados · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Dorados are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LLLWW), averaging 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Celaya are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (DDLLL), averaging 1.20 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Dorados hold a 15.2-point power-rating edge (68.0 v 52.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 39.5% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Dorados holds the strongest overall chance at 39% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 50% BTTS chance and 44% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Dorados
Probability
39.5%
Model confidence
39.5%
Dorados has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20