Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Dorados · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Dorados are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DDWLL), averaging 1.60 scored and 2.40 conceded, while CA La Paz are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WDWDL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Dorados hold a 10.1-point power-rating edge (68.0 v 57.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 38.7% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Dorados holds the strongest overall chance at 39% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 63% BTTS chance and 60% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Dorados
Probability
38.7%
Model confidence
38.7%
Dorados has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 12 · avg 1.60/2.40
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60