Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Dorados · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Dorados are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LLWDL), averaging 1.00 scored and 2.60 conceded, while CA La Paz are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (WLLLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 2.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Dorados hold a 10.1-point power-rating edge (68.0 v 57.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 38.7% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Dorados holds the strongest overall chance at 39% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 63% BTTS chance and 60% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Dorados
Probability
38.7%
Model confidence
38.7%
Dorados has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 13 · avg 1.00/2.60
GF 4 · GA 14 · avg 0.80/2.80