Dongguan Unitedvs
Shenzhen Juniors
COMPLETEDChina · League One · 8/29/2026, 11:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Shenzhen Juniors · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (13%), 0-1 (11%), 0-3 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Dongguan United 1-2 Shenzhen Juniors
Original prediction
Shenzhen Juniors
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:54 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.54 | 25.5% | 14.1% | -11.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.38 | 26.7% | 19.3% | -7.4 pts |
| Away | 1.89 | 47.8% | 66.5% | 18.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.89 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
18.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–213%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–310%
Predicted outcome
Shenzhen Juniors
Probability
66.5%
Model confidence
66.5%
Shenzhen Juniors has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 14 · avg 0.80/2.80
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80