Dongguan Unitedvs
Nanjing City
COMPLETEDChina · League One · 10/24/2026, 11:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Nanjing City · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (14%), 0-1 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Dongguan United 2-5 Nanjing City
Original prediction
Nanjing City
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 06:28 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.13 | 21.9% | 28.5% | 6.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.55 | 25.5% | 28.7% | 3.2 pts |
| Away | 1.72 | 52.6% | 42.8% | -9.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.72 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–014%
- 3.0–113%
Predicted outcome
Nanjing City
Probability
42.8%
Model confidence
42.8%
Nanjing City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 14 · avg 1.00/2.80
GF 3 · GA 9 · avg 0.60/1.80