GGOALVIO

China · League One · 5/23/2026, 11:30:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Heilongjiang Lava Spring · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Mediumconfidence

Dongguan United are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LDDWL), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Heilongjiang Lava Spring are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LLDWW), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Heilongjiang Lava Spring hold a 12.1-point power-rating edge (32.6 v 44.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 10.9% in the League One, while Heilongjiang Lava Spring holds the strongest overall chance at 48% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 65% BTTS chance and 64% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Heilongjiang Lava Spring

Probability

47.8%

Model confidence

10.9%

Heilongjiang Lava Spring has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Dongguan UnitedLDDWL

GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40

BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Heilongjiang Lava SpringLLDWW

GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80

BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
Dongguan UnitedHeilongjiang Lava Spring
35.2Attack51.9
35.2Defence35.2
20.4Form38.9
32.6Power44.6
1.41xG1.91
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