Dongguan Unitedvs
Guangxi Hengchen
COMPLETEDChina · League One · 10/7/2026, 11:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Guangxi Hengchen · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (14%), 0-1 (11%), 0-3 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Dongguan United 1-0 Guangxi Hengchen
Original prediction
Guangxi Hengchen
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 21:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.48 | 16.4% | 13.1% | -3.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.11 | 21.9% | 19.1% | -2.8 pts |
| Away | 1.46 | 61.7% | 67.9% | 6.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–214%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–310%
Predicted outcome
Guangxi Hengchen
Probability
67.9%
Model confidence
67.9%
Guangxi Hengchen has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 12 · avg 0.80/2.40
GF 6 · GA 2 · avg 1.20/0.40