Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Doncaster · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Doncaster are 1W-4D-0L in their last 5 (DWDDD), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Port Vale are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (LDDWD), averaging 0.80 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Doncaster hold a 17.9-point power-rating edge (59.8 v 41.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 54.3% in the EFL Trophy, while Doncaster holds the strongest overall chance at 54% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 53% BTTS chance and 52% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Doncaster
Probability
54.3%
Model confidence
54.3%
Doncaster has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80