Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Doncaster · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Doncaster 2-3 Plymouth
Original prediction
Doncaster
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:17 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.43 | 38.3% | 40.0% | 1.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.45 | 27.0% | 27.9% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 2.69 | 34.6% | 32.0% | -2.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Doncaster
Probability
40.0%
Model confidence
40.0%
Doncaster has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
DoncasterDDLDL
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
PlymouthLWLDL
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
DoncasterPlymouth
33.3Attack33.3
58.3Defence50.0
25.0Form33.3
42.1Power40.9
1.30xG1.04