Doncastervs
Notts County
COMPLETEDEngland · League One · 9/1/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Notts County · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (9%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Doncaster 1-1 Notts County
Original prediction
Notts County
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.27 | 41.1% | 35.8% | -5.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.36 | 27.9% | 27.7% | -0.2 pts |
| Away | 3.01 | 31.0% | 36.6% | 5.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.36 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–19%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Notts County
Probability
36.6%
Model confidence
36.6%
Notts County has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00