Doncastervs
Burton Albion
COMPLETEDEngland · League One · 10/10/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Doncaster · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Doncaster 1-0 Burton Albion
Original prediction
Doncaster
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 06:16 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.68 | 55.5% | 42.3% | -13.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.91 | 23.9% | 27.0% | 3.1 pts |
| Away | 4.54 | 20.6% | 30.7% | 10.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.68 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Doncaster
Probability
42.3%
Model confidence
42.3%
Doncaster has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20