Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bradford · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Doncaster are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LDLLW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Bradford are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (LDDDW), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Bradford hold a 21.5-point power-rating edge (59.8 v 81.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 45.4% in the EFL Trophy, while Bradford holds the strongest overall chance at 45% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 59% BTTS chance and 56% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Bradford
Probability
45.4%
Model confidence
45.4%
Bradford has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20