Don Benitovs
Sanluqueño
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 · 9/26/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Don Benito · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (13%), 1-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Don Benito 1-0 Sanluqueño
Original prediction
Don Benito
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 17:27 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.90 | 46.8% | 39.5% | -7.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.03 | 29.4% | 30.1% | 0.8 pts |
| Away | 3.74 | 23.8% | 30.3% | 6.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.90 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–013%
- 3.1–012%
Predicted outcome
Don Benito
Probability
39.5%
Model confidence
39.5%
Don Benito has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00