Dominican Republicvs
Haiti
COMPLETEDWorld · CONCACAF Nations League · 10/2/2026, 12:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Haiti · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Dominican Republic 1-4 Haiti
Original prediction
Haiti
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 16 September 2026 at 18:21 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.71 | 24.8% | 35.3% | 10.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.72 | 24.7% | 25.6% | 0.8 pts |
| Away | 1.82 | 50.4% | 39.1% | -11.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.82 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Haiti
Probability
39.1%
Model confidence
39.1%
Haiti has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 11 · avg 1.40/2.20
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00