Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Guyana · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Dominica 1-5 Guyana
Original prediction
Guyana
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 16 September 2026 at 18:21 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 10.94 | 8.3% | 25.9% | 17.6 pts |
| Draw | 5.43 | 16.7% | 24.6% | 7.8 pts |
| Away | 1.21 | 75.0% | 49.5% | -25.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.21 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-25.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–18%
Predicted outcome
Guyana
Probability
49.5%
Model confidence
49.5%
Guyana has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
DominicaLDWDD
GF 1 · GA 2 · avg 0.20/0.40
BTTS 0/5O2.5 0/5
GuyanaWWWWL
GF 13 · GA 9 · avg 2.60/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
DominicaGuyana
0.0Attack50.0
66.7Defence100.0
16.7Form100.0
31.3Power86.5
1.28xG1.61