Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Dominica · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Dominica 1-0 Anguilla
Original prediction
Dominica
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 07:32 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.18 | 77.6% | 52.6% | -25.0 pts |
| Draw | 6.38 | 14.4% | 24.2% | 9.8 pts |
| Away | 11.58 | 7.9% | 23.2% | 15.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.18 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-25.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
Dominica
Probability
52.6%
Model confidence
52.6%
Dominica has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
DominicaDDLW
GF 3 · GA 3 · avg 0.75/0.75
BTTS 1/4O2.5 1/4
AnguillaWLLLW
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
DominicaAnguilla
50.0Attack33.3
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form38.9
51.0Power43.9
1.57xG1.02