Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tre Penne · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Domagnano 0-2 Tre Penne
Original prediction
Tre Penne
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 08:40 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.49 | 16.4% | 25.4% | 9.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.05 | 22.3% | 24.5% | 2.2 pts |
| Away | 1.47 | 61.3% | 50.1% | -11.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.47 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–28%
Predicted outcome
Tre Penne
Probability
50.1%
Model confidence
50.1%
Tre Penne has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
DomagnanoLLWWW
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 5/5
Tre PenneWWWWW
GF 11 · GA 3 · avg 2.20/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
DomagnanoTre Penne
58.3Attack75.0
50.0Defence83.3
50.0Form100.0
51.9Power88.7
1.24xG1.82