Dolomiti Bellunesivs
Novara
COMPLETEDItaly · Serie C - Girone A · 10/4/2026, 3:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Dolomiti Bellunesi · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (12%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Dolomiti Bellunesi 1-2 Novara
Original prediction
Dolomiti Bellunesi
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:47 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.83 | 32.3% | 36.4% | 4.1 pts |
| Draw | 2.93 | 31.1% | 30.0% | -1.1 pts |
| Away | 2.50 | 36.6% | 33.6% | -3.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–012%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
Dolomiti Bellunesi
Probability
36.4%
Model confidence
36.4%
Dolomiti Bellunesi has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20