Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Djerv · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-2 (7%), 4-2 (7%), 3-1 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Djerv 5-0 Fana
Original prediction
Djerv
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 September 2026 at 09:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.39 | 64.7% | 62.6% | -2.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.99 | 18.1% | 15.8% | -2.3 pts |
| Away | 5.22 | 17.3% | 21.6% | 4.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.39 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–27%
- 2.4–27%
- 3.3–16%
Predicted outcome
Djerv
Probability
62.6%
Model confidence
62.6%
Djerv has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
DjervWWWWW
GF 15 · GA 5 · avg 3.00/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
FanaWWWLW
GF 17 · GA 6 · avg 3.40/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 5/5
DjervFana
86.1Attack97.1
56.9Defence36.2
73.6Form63.8
72.0Power64.9
3.86xG2.33