Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al-Karma · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Diyala 0-0 Al-Karma, with an exact score probability of 25%.
Prediction record
Final result
Diyala 1-2 Al-Karma
Original prediction
Al-Karma
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.33 | 20.8% | 20.4% | -0.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.28 | 27.5% | 31.6% | 4.1 pts |
| Away | 1.74 | 51.8% | 48.1% | -3.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.74 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.7 pts
Projected Score
Diyala 0–0 Al-Karma
Exact score probability: 25%
Predicted outcome
Al-Karma
Probability
48.1%
Model confidence
48.1%
Al-Karma has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
DiyalaDDLWW
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Al-KarmaWDWDW
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
DiyalaAl-Karma
27.2Attack37.7
56.1Defence69.3
36.0Form49.1
42.0Power52.9
0.52xG0.94